Pimlico & the 133rd Preakness await Big Brown

May 15, 2008

Through the years many horse racing experts have claimed that the 1 3/16 mile Preakness Stakes is the most difficult of the three Triple Crown races to win.

For starters, the Preakness is shortest of the Triple Crown races. The recent Kentucky Derby was 1 ¼ miles and the Belmont Stakes will be run at the classic distance of 1 ½ miles.   The second reason is the Preakness occurs only two weeks after the Derby. Horses that have competed in the Derby are only getting two weeks rest.  There is a definite advantage to those horses that have skipped the Derby and are thus better rested.  Lastly, Pimlico is a speed biased racetrack.  Success in the Preakness is directly related to those horses with a speed or tactical speed running style.   

What does this mean for reigning Kentucky Derby champ Big Brown?  Well, it’s mostly very positive.  Big Brown is a speed horse with a pedigree more suited to the shorter Preakness distance.  Also, he should love a speed favoring track like Pimlico.  Concerning the short two week rest, Big Brown has not been challenged in any of his four lifetime races.  He has won them all rather easily and has conserved his energy.  He can definitely handle the two week rest issue.  The only small downside I can imagine is a Preakness post position that causes him to run wide like he did in his last two races.   Pimlico, unlike Gulfstream Park and Churchill Downs, is very non-forgiving to runners going wide.  Horses going wide, even the good ones like Big Brown, could find that they have plenty of company inside the 1/8 pole and often get beat.  However, I know trainer Dick Dutrow and jockey Kent Desormeaux understand this about Pimlico.  Regardless of post position, Desormeaux will put Big Brown on the lead immediately after the gate opens.  The bottom line - even though it’s a horse race and we all know anything can happen, Big Brown wins the Preakness in a romp.

Most horse racing experts are predicting similar Preakness scenarios. Also, given the fact that possibly only one of the other nineteen Derby horses will be challenging Big Brown in the Preakness, he is expected to be one of the shortest priced favorites in the long history of this great race.    So, how does the average bettor make any money playing such an overwhelming favorite?   I have two suggestions:

1. Play the Pimlico Special / Preakness double.   The only real challenge is to handicap the winner of Friday’s very competitive Pimlico Special (10^th race).   This is a $250,000 (Gr. I) stakes race for older horses contested at the same distance (1 3/16 miles) as the Preakness.   I can envision a 4 or 5 to 1 shot winning which could result in a $20 double payoff with Big Brown.   I favor #8 Sir Whimsey or #7 Grasshopper in the Special and both are expected to be above 4 to
   

2. Play a Preakness Trifecta or Superfecta, keying Big Brown to win over several other horses.  Although the Preakness field, as of  this writing (5/13), is not finalized,  I favor Tres Borrachos, Hey Byrn, and Racecar Rhapsody to run behind Big Brown.  A Trifecta or Superfecta could easily return $40 - $70 for a $1 key wager ($6 cost) when using three horses under Big Brown.

Again, I like Big Brown to win the Preakness regardless of whom he runs against.  I believe we are seeing a very special race horse that only comes along every 20 or 25 years. Let’s enjoy his performance on Saturday and hope he has a winning trip.  It would be special to see him shooting for a Triple Crown at Belmont Park on June 7^th.

I hope this helps with your Preakness wagering and please remember to always gamble responsively.